2018/19 Premier League season betting tips: Chelsea look value

Betting

Check out our best betting tips for the new Premier League season, with 40/1, 16/1 and 12/1 shots among those on offer…

Outright

The problem in this season’s Premier League title betting is that Manchester City are, for very understandable reasons, prohibitively short favourites.

There’s nothing wrong with 4/6 quotes given the extent of their dominance last season. But 10 months is a long time to wait for a return at that kind of price, and it’s worth remembering that it’s now a decade since anyone managed to retain the Premier League title.

Liverpool are rated as the nearest challengers for City, but any value in them has gone now. Quotes of 4/1 for a team without a league title since 1990 make little appeal even if we can safely expect enormous entertainment from Jurgen Klopp’s high-quality, all-action side.

Harsh as it may be, until this side gets over the line and actually wins something then they have to be approached with caution.

A better way to get Klopp’s entertainers onside may be to back them to be top of the table at Christmas. It’s the same price as a title win, and looks far likelier. They are not as burdened as some with fears of World Cup burnout, while they got their main transfer business done decisively and early.

It would be no surprise to see them setting a fast early pace. It’s whether they can hold on and get over the line in May that is in doubt, but by backing them in the Christmas market we need not concern ourselves with that.

They’ve been handed a lovely start to the season with West Ham, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Leicester and Southampton five of their first six opponents. Even the other game in their opening six – the first game at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – is one Liverpool should view as an opportunity rather than a headache, especially if they’ve picked up 10 or 12 points from their first four games as looks distinctly possible.

Of the ‘big six’, it’s Chelsea who appear to have been under-rated in the outright betting. A new manager is no barrier to a Chelsea title charge as we’ve seen before in recent years, and nor too should we worry about their disappointing form last season.

Chelsea have spent the last five years alternating between winning the title and then staging a shambolic defence and, while that statistical quirk alone is not enough to justify a wager, it does tell us something about them.

Given the doubts that exist everywhere except City, 12/1 just looks a few points too big for a club with Chelsea’s proven ability when in a position to win titles.

Rather than back them each-way, effectively getting 4/1 for Chelsea to finish second, it looks worth instead having your saver on Chelsea without Manchester City at 5/1. It seems hugely unlikely we’ll see two teams get the better of Pep Guardiola’s machine over 38 games.

Lastly, Arsenal are surely too big at 2/1 to secure a top-four finish. They’ve recruited well, and while a new manager is an enormous novelty at the Emirates they’ve put a safe hand on the tiller in Unai Emery.

The only reason not to back the 2/1 now is the fact it may get bigger still should they start badly against Manchester City and Chelsea before they hit a nice run of easier fixtures in September and October. But it’s not like they are without a chance in those opening games, and a good price is a good price.

Recommended bets:

Chelsea to win the Premier League at 12/1

Chelsea w/o Manchester City at 5/1

Liverpool top at Christmas at 4/1

Arsenal top-four finish at 2/1

 

Top Goalscorer

As ever, Harry Kane is the man to beat here but while his astonishing consistency over the last four years makes him close to an each-way bet to nothing at 11/4, better value can be found elsewhere.

We’ve already said we expect Arsenal to go pretty well this season, and one of the key reasons is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. He scored 10 goals in 13 Premier League games for the Gunners after his January move from Borussia Dortmund, building on his phenomenal scoring record in the Bundesliga. His league goal tallies for the last three years are 25, 31 and 23 (that in a season where he moved halfway through it).

Crucially, and unlike so many others near the head of this market, Aubameyang has not had to recover from a World Cup campaign, and after a full pre-season at his new club will be feeling far more settled.

Whatever other problems Arsenal may have they will still score goals with the likes of Mesut Ozil around to provide the ammunition. Aubameyang has long since proved he can provide the finishing touches.

Looking further down the market, and there has to be each-way value in Jamie Vardy at 40/1. Yes, the loss of the Riyad Mahrez supply line is a major blow, but that’s still a massive price for a player who has reached the 20-goal barrier (and with it a near-certain each-way payout) in two of the last three seasons.

Recommended bets:

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang at 13/2

Jamie Vardy e.w. at 40/1

 

Relegation

There will be a few of the more established Premier League clubs looking around nervously this season. All three promoted clubs survived last season, and two of this year’s three look well-placed to follow the trend. Wolves and Fulham look more likely to finish in the top half than the bottom three given their summer business, which leaves only Cardiff of the promoted trio looking vulnerable.

They will surely go, while it’s hard to see Huddersfield repeating last year’s miracle. The fast start built on the confidence from the season before was so crucial to last year’s survival. Now that the Premier League novelty has worn off and they start the season on the back of 15 points from their last 19 games, things may be far tougher.

That leaves one place, and it really could be any one of 10. Another Newcastle implosion is distinctly possible – especially if Rafa Benitez decides to walk away – while even Burnley need to be careful not to let the high defensive standards that took them to seventh place last season slip.

But it’s Watford who look the most vulnerable. Their four-year Premier League stay has been underpinned by fast starts and stumbling finishes, but it’s hard to see where the goals and therefore points are going to come this time around.

They’ve lost Richarlison – the talisman of their successful first half to last season – and haven’t managed to snare any bargains from the continent as they have so often in the past.

The Cardiff/Huddersfield/Watford relegation treble pays 16/1 and could reward a small ante-post interest.

Recommended bet:

Cardiff, Huddersfield and Watford to be relegated at 16/1

 

  • All prices with bet365.com and correct at time of publication.

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