Best Bets of the Weekend: Premier League Matchday 12

Arsenal and Sporting will go head-to-head at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday with the hosts leading the way in Group E.

Arsenal look good things at home to Wolves this weekend, while Spurs can continue a remarkable run against Palace and our Premier League four-fold is bigger than 28/1…

 

Banker of the weekend: Arsenal to beat Wolves at 4/6
It’s a short price, but surely one that still represents a spot of value. For reference, Manchester City (2/5) and Leicester (1/2) are markedly shorter for victories over Manchester United and Burnley respectively.

Is an Arsenal home win against Wolves really less likely than those? It just can’t be; we’d have no qualms about the Gunners being 2/5 here, as Chelsea are at home to Everton.

Wolves made a decent start to their season, but it has unravelled in recent weeks. However well they played against Spurs, they still lost and, on another day, could have done so 4-1 or worse.

And defeat to Spurs made it three in a row for Wolves. If losing to Spurs is no disaster for a mid-table outfit, the back-to-back defeats to Watford and Brighton that preceded it are more damning.

Arsenal’s winning run may have come to an end, but last Saturday evening’s 1-1 draw with title-chasing Liverpool was a contest of equals. They may have dropped points in two of their five home games to date, but those have been against two of the three sides still currently unbeaten at the top of the table. Arsenal have beaten West Ham (currently 13th), Everton (9th) and Leicester (10th) at the Emirates in between those games against City and Liverpool. Those three wins are for more relevant for a clash with 11th-placed Wolves.

We rarely put up prices as short as this even in the banker section, but 4/6 can still be value. This feels like one such time.

 

Long shot of the weekend: Tottenham to beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at 17/2
Spurs are still to fully convince this season, but their record is one that demands respect. They’ve won eight games out of 11, and six out of seven away from home. Backing them blind in the Premier League this season – especially away from home – might not have been good for your nerves, but would certainly have you in profit.

Go back to last season, and they’ve now won 10 of their last 13 Premier League away games; that’s a better record in that time than Manchester City.

Palace have drawn two and lost three of their home games in the league this season, failing to score in four of those five games.

Two of Spurs’ last three wins in the league have come via the only goal and, remarkably, the last four games between this pair – and five of the last six – have ended in 1-0 Tottenham wins.

With neither side firing on all cylinders on the attacking front, Spurs’ formidable away record and this fixture’s history, a 1-0 Spurs win at 17/2 looks generous.

 

Goalscorer of the weekend: Alvaro Morata e.w. to score first against Everton at 9/2
Alvaro Morata is enjoying life again at Chelsea and has scored five in his last six games for the Blues. His double last week was crucial to Chelsea’s victory over a stubborn Crystal Palace and he is likely to be crucial again in what promises to be another tough home game.

Morata scored in this fixture last season, in August 2017 when all was well for the Spaniard in a fine start to the season. He’s very much back in that frame of mind now and has in recent weeks taken over from Eden Hazard as Chelsea’s primary goal threat. Hazard, though, is notably shorter at 3/1 to score first and odds-on to score anytime, a market where Morata is 11/10.

 

Acca of the weekend: Brighton, Watford, Tottenham and Arsenal all to win at 28.36/1
Arsenal and Spurs – 5/6 for any win – are covered elsewhere, while we’re taking a punt on a couple of away teams at tidy prices.

Brighton and Watford have both made decent starts to the season and face two teams who haven’t. Even away from home, both look generous at 21/10 to get the better of Cardiff and Southampton respectively. Cardiff have lost four out of six at home, their only win coming against bottom-of-the-table Fulham, while the Saints have yet to win a home game and failed to score in three.

 

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